JAKARTA — Domestic financial markets demonstrated significant recovery momentum during Wednesday's (30/9/2026) trading session. The rupiah surged sharply against the US dollar, while the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) successfully returned to positive territory, driven by a shift in global sentiment toward a more positive outlook.
According to Refinitiv data cited by CNBC Indonesia, the rupiah appreciated 0.53% to Rp17,865/USD as of 11:06 WIB. This strength emerged after the currency opened trading at Rp17,910/USD. Compared to Tuesday's (29/9/2026) close at Rp17,960/USD, the rupiah has gained 95 points. We assess that this movement is crucial as it has moved the currency away from the psychological resistance level of Rp18,000/USD, which had been breached in previous intraday trading.
The Fed's Hawkish Signals and Their Impact on Real Assets
The primary catalyst for this appreciation stems from the global bond market. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries corrected by 0.10% to 5.24%. This decline in yields, occurring amidst expectations of a still-tight (hawkish) monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, has created room for foreign capital flows to return to emerging markets, including Indonesia.
"Market sentiment has turned slightly positive following reports that the White House is open to considering a review of sanctions against Iran to de-escalate geopolitical conflict tensions," wrote M. Nafan Aji Gusta, CTA, CSA, Senior Technical Analyst at Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, in the Strategy Notes & JCI Technical View report.
The easing of tensions in the Middle East has directly impacted energy prices. WTI crude oil prices fell 3.95% to US$88.95 per barrel, while Brent crude corrected by 1.99% to US$95.88 per barrel. This decline in oil prices has the potential to alleviate global inflationary burdens and boost consumer purchasing power, which in turn supports the performance of energy and manufacturing sector issuers on the IDXCOMPOSITE.
IHSG Outlook and US Inflation Pressures
During the first trading session, the IHSG strengthened by 0.5% to 6,152. We estimate that with this positive sentiment, the index has the potential to approach the 6,200 range in subsequent sessions, particularly if foreign capital flows into the banking and technology sectors remain stable.
However, market participants remain cautious regarding US economic data. Core PCE inflation is projected to remain at 3.7% and core PCE at 3.3%, both still above the Fed's 2% target. Strong US consumer spending (projected to grow 0.8% month-on-month) indicates resilient domestic demand.
| Asset | Movement | Last Level | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rupiah (USDCIDR) | +0.53% | Rp17,865/USD | Positive for import costs |
| IHSG (IDXCOMPOSITE) | +0.5% | 6,152 | Rebound from selling pressure |
| WTI Crude Oil | -3.95% | US$88.95/bbl | Eases global inflation |
| US Treasury 10Y | -0.10% | 5.24% | Increases EM appeal |
Our analysis indicates that the combination of persistently high inflation and strong consumption in the US may signal that domestic demand has not weakened sufficiently to exert significant downward pressure on prices. Consequently, volatility in the crypto market and US tech stocks (US tech) may continue, but the rupiah's strength provides a cushion for domestic investors in the Indonesian stock market.
Sources
- Breaking! Rupiah Strengthens 0.53%, US Dollar Falls to Rp17,865 — CNBC Indonesia
- Video: Hawkish Fed Signals - Rupiah Strengthens and IHSG Approaches 6,200s — CNBC Indonesia